From the moment that I found out my wife was pregnant with our first child, a son, I’ve thought of his development in terms of tech. When pregnancy sites described our six-week-old fetus as the size of a “lentil,” I referred to him as the length of an RFID chip. When the doctor said he had reached 1.3 pounds, I told all my friends that my son was the size of an iPad. When he was born this week, he was about the size of an HP Envy 15, though unfortunately his cries did not use Beats Audio.
从我知道我妻子已经怀上我们的第一个孩子（是个男孩）开始，我就在从科技的角度想象他的发育进程。当育儿网站描述称，6个星期大的胎儿大小相当于“小扁豆”时，我就想象它有一个RFID（射频识别）芯片那么长；当医生说它的体重达到1.3磅（约合0.6千克）时，我就就跟朋友们说，我的儿子有iPad那么大了。而当本周他终于诞生时，大概有我的惠普Envy 15那么大，虽然很不幸的是，他的哭声没有使用Beats Audio音效系统。
As my newborn son grows to match the size of a mid-tower desktop, a large-screen TV and eventually a server rack, I can’t help but think about all the gadgets he won’t even remember using that were so important to his dad. I’m not talking about long dead-and-buried technologies such as the VHS recorder or the 35mm camera. Rather, I’m thinking about devices and concepts most of us use today that will fall out of mainstream use so soon that he either won’t remember them, or will only have very hazy memories of having lived with them.
我忍不住会想，当我刚刚诞生的儿子将来成长到有台式电脑那样大，大屏幕电视机那样大，并最终变得有服务器机架那样大的时候，现在对我来说如此重要的那些设备到那时都是他甚至不会记得的。我所说的并非那些早就已经被淘汰的技术，比如说是VHS录像机或是35mm照相机；而是我们大多数人当前正在使用的设备和概念，它们很快都将不再是主流，以至于我儿子要么不会记得它们，要么只能有非常模糊的曾与它们一起生活的记忆。
1. Wired Home Internet 有线家庭互联网
I was surprised when a 23-year-old co-worker told me she didn't remember a time before broadband Internet. At some point, her parents must have had dial-up, but she was so young that she doesn't even remember back that far. Wireless broadband won't dominate the home market until he's 8 to 10, but my son won't remember a world where consumers pay for wired Internet connections.
当 一位23岁的女同事告诉我说，她不记得宽带互联网以前的时代时，我感到十分惊讶。从某种程度上来说，她的父母一定经历过拨号上网的时代，但那时她还太小，以至于甚至不会记得那么久以前的事情。要到我儿子成长到8至10岁时，无线宽带服务才会在家庭市场上占据主导地位，但他不会记得消费者为有线互联网接入服务买单的年代。
Even today, 4G LTE provides comparable download speeds and better upload speeds than cable Internet, but the cost of using mobile broadband all the time is prohibitive. At some point in the next few years, broadband providers are going to realize that giving everyone home antennas is more scalable than wiring and maintaining each street's network of fiber-optic cables. At that point, the paradigm will shift and it will be cheaper to purchase wireless than wired Internet. Clear already offers a 4G WiMax home Internet hub with unlimited service, though it's not fast enough to compete with cable Internet.
即使是在今天，虽然4G LTE网络能提供可与有线互联网相比的下载速度和更好的上传速度，但一直使用移动宽带服务的费用却令人不敢问津。在未来几年中的某个时刻，宽带服务提供商会认识到，与提供有线网络和维护每条街道的光纤电缆网络相比，向所有人提供家用天线会是更容易做到的事情。到那时，范例将会发生转变，购买无线宽带的费用会变得比有线宽带更低。Clearwire已经在提供4G WiMax家庭互联网集线器，向用户提供无限制的服务，但其速度不够快，无法与有线互联网服务展开竞争。
2. Dedicated Cameras and Camcorders 专用照相机和摄录像机
Smartphone cameras are already killing the consumer point-and-shoot and the family camcorder. Unlike cameras, which most of us carry only when we think we might need to take pictures, smartphones are always with us. They offer all kinds of apps and filters for adjusting pictures on the fly and they allow us to share our photos and videos online as soon as we take them. DSLRs and micro four-thirds cameras will remain with us, but within a few years, the average consumer won't own a dedicated camera at all.
智能手机摄像头已经在毁灭对准即拍设备和家庭摄录像机。与照相机不同的是，我们大多数人都只会在觉得自己可能需要拍照时才会携带照相机，而智能手机则会一直跟在我们身边。智能手机可以提供各种应用和滤镜，用来调整相片；而且，智能手机还允许我们在拍好以后马上共享照片和视频。数码单反相机（DSLR）和Micro Four-thirds Camer仍将与我们在一起，但在几年以后，一般消费者将不再拥有专用的照相机。
3. Landline Phones 固定电话
As of 2010, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that 26 percent of U.S. homes had wireless phones only. By the time my son turns 5 in 2017, only a handful of old people and Luddites will continue to own house phones while everyone will likely use cellphones exclusively. By the time my son is 10, most businesses will have done away with their desk phones and saved a lot of money and hassle in the process.
据美国疾病控制与预防中心（Centers for Disease Control and Prevention）发布的数据显示，截至2010年为止，仅有26%的美国家庭拥有无线手机。到2017年，也就是我儿子5岁的时候，只有一些老人和卢德派（译注：卢德派是十九世纪初英国手工业者组成的集团，他们反对以机器为基础的工业化，在诺丁汉等地从事破坏机器的活动）分子才会继续拥有家庭电话，而其他人则很可能只会使用手机。到我儿子10岁时，大多数公司都将不再使用固定电话，可以节省资金。
4. Slow-Booting Computers 启动速度慢的电脑
Waiting for one's computer to boot is one of the great tech frustrations of the PC era, but my son will never know that pain. With the move toward always-on computing, future users will almost never turn their computers off, instead waking them from sleep in a second or less. New operating systems will be able to install updates and patches without requiring a reboot. However, if for some reason, you do need to restart the computer, boots will take only a couple of seconds because of SSDs and fast-starting operating systems like Windows 8. "When I was your age, we had to wait up to two minutes for a computer to power on, and we liked it," I'll tell him.
等待电脑重启是个人电脑时代中最令人有挫折感的事情之一，但在不久以后，我的儿子就会不知道这种痛苦。时代正在朝着随时运算的方向发展，未来的用户几乎永远都不会关掉电脑，而是能在一秒钟或更短的时间里将其从睡眠状态变成开机状态。新的操作系统将可在不重启的情况下安装更新和补丁，但如果你出于某种理由而需要重启电脑，那么启动时间也将只需要几秒钟，因为有了固态硬盘（SSD）和Windows 8等启动迅速的操作系统。“当我象你这么大时，我们不得不等两分钟时间才能启动电脑，我们喜欢那样。”我将这样告诉我的儿子。
5. Windowed Operating Systems Windowed操作系统
When my son is ready for his own computer, the windows will be gone from Windows. Microsoft 's PC operating system will still exist, as will Mac OS X. But, in the next few years, we'll say good bye to the window metaphor where each application you run is displayed in a draggable box that has a title bar and widgets.
当我儿子准备购买他自己的电脑时，“视窗”将从Windows出发，走向其他地方。微软的个人电脑操作系统仍将继续存在，Mac OS X也是如此。但在未来几年时间里，我们将对“视窗”这个隐喻的概念说再见。在“视窗”中，你所运行的每个应用都会在一个能够拖动的方框中显示，这个方框会拥有一个标题栏和一些小工具。
Microsoft has already signaled its intent to kill the window metaphor by making the tile-based Metro UI the default screen for Windows 8. How long before Mac OS and even Ubuntu also default to touch-friendly UIs that don't have tiny widgets?
微软已经表明了自己终结“视窗”概念的意愿，将基于拼贴的Metro用户界面作为Windows 8操作系统的默认屏幕。那么，Mac OS甚至是Ubuntu也使用默认的触摸友好用户界面还要多久呢？
6. Hard Drives 硬盘驱动器
My first computer, a TI 99, used cassette tapes to store data. My second computer used 5.25-inch floppy disks, and the third system had a combination of a 3.5-inch floppy drive and a small IDE hard drive. The next PC had a zip drive and a tape backup unit. However, as different as these disks were, they all used the same magnetic platter technology that's been popular since reel-to-reel tapes ruled the earth.
我的第一台电脑是一台TI 99，用盒式磁带来存储数据；第二台使用5.25英寸的软盘，第三台使用3.5英寸软盘加一个很小的IDE硬盘驱动器，再下一台电脑拥有一个zip驱动器和磁带备份单元。虽然这些磁盘有很大不同，但是它们都使用同样的磁板存储技术。自卷对卷磁带开始统治这个地球以来，这种技术一直都在流行。
Today, solid state drives finally allow us to end the ancient practice of storing our data on spinning magnetic platters. Because they have no moving parts, SSDs are infinitely faster than hard drives and more durable, too. Today, the cost of solid-state storage is significantly higher than magnetic media, but expect that delta to shrink significantly over the years while users come to expect SSD speeds from even low-end computers. By the time my son gets his first new laptop, you won't be able to buy one without an SSD. Hard drives and their cheap storage will only remain useful for servers, where space is more important than speed.
今天，固态硬盘最终允许我们终止以古老的方法在磁板上存储我们的数据。由于没有活动件的关系，固态硬盘的速度要比硬盘驱动器快得多，而且更加耐用。今天，固体存储的成本要远远高于磁性媒介，但预计未来几年中这种差距会大幅缩小，用户将可在低端电脑上获取固态硬盘的速度。到我儿子拿到自己的第一台新笔记本时，你将无法买到一台没有固态硬盘的电脑。硬盘驱动器及其廉价的存储能力将仅对服务器有用，原因是对服务器来说，空间比速度更重要。
7. Movie Theaters 电影院
Pundits have been predicting the death of the movie theater since the first televisions hit the market, but this time, it's really going to happen for a number of reasons. First, with large HD televisions going mainstream and 3D sets becoming more affordable, the average home theater is almost as good as the average multiplex theater. Second, studios and their cable partners have begun releasing some movies for on-demand viewing on the same day they debut in theaters, a trend which is likely to continue.
自第一台电视机上市以来，权威人士一直都预计电影院将会死亡；但这一次，此事确实将会发生，理由有很多。首先，大屏幕的高清电视机将会变成主流，3D电视机的价格将会变得越来越能让人负担得起，家庭影院几乎会跟多放映厅的电影院一样好。其次，电影公司及其有线电视合作伙伴已经开始发布一些电影，这些电影可在电影院上映的同日供观众点播观看，而且这种趋势很可能会继续下去。
Finally, the cost of going to a movie theater is so out of control — movie tickets in New York cost around $13 each — that nobody is going to keep paying it. In a world where an on-demand film that's still in theaters costs $7 to rent and one that just left the theater streams for $2.99 from Amazon, who will spend more than $50 for a family of four to go see the same movie surrounded by annoying patrons, dirty seats and overpriced popcorn? Art house theaters that offer specialized films and a sense of community may remain, but the average multiplex will be gone before my son notices it was ever there.
最后，到电影院去看电影的成本已经失去控制——纽约电影票的价格大约为每张13美元——没人会继续为此付钱。在一个与影院同步播放的点播电影的租借成本仅为7美元，稍后通过亚马逊购买流播放版电影只需2.99美元的i情况下，谁还会花一家四口50多美元的钱去电影院看同一部电影呢？提供特殊电影的、拥有社区感的艺术剧院电影院可能还会继续存在，但一般的多放映厅电影院则将在我儿子知道它们存在以前消失。
8. The Mouse 鼠标
Within five years, the cost of adding capacitive touch capability to screens will be so small that every display, from large-screen TVs to laptops, will have it. More precise pointing devices such as the mouse and touchpad won't disappear overnight, but they'll likely fade away or become secondary input methods within the next several years. Already with Windows 8, the user interface will support touch even if you don't necessarily need to use it all the time.
在未来五年时间里，在显示屏中加入电容触摸性能将是很小的一件事情，以至于从大屏幕电视机到笔记本等各种设备的显示屏都将拥有。鼠标和触控板等更加精确的定点设备不会在一夜之间消失，但很可能会在未来几年时间里逐渐消失，或是变成次要的输入方法。在拥有Windows 8以后，用户界面将可支持触摸，哪怕你未必需要总是使用触摸功能。
9. 3D Glasses 3D眼镜
Ever since the first 3D films hit theaters in the 1950s, viewers have been forced to wear some kind of glasses in order to experience three-dimensional effects. However, in the past year or so, we've started seeing a number of glasses-free solutions hit the market.
自从3D电影在二十世纪五十年代进入电影院以来，观众一直都被迫戴上眼镜才能体验3D效果。但在过去一年时间里，我们已经开始看到，有许多不用戴眼镜的解决方案进入了市场。
In 2011, Toshiba released the Qosmio F755 notebook, which uses its webcam to track your eye movements and serve up really compelling 3D images, though these are only optimized for a single viewer. Last year, phone vendors HTC and LG both launched handsets with glasses-free, stereoscopic 3D screens that weren't home theater quality, but were good enough for some three-dimensional fun. By the time my son is 10, large-screened devices like TVs will be able to offer a compelling glasses-free 3D experience to many viewers at the same time.
在2011年，东芝发布了Qosmio F755笔记本，这款笔记本能用网络摄像头来追踪你的眼球运动，提供真正能引人注目的3D图像，虽然这些图像只会为单一的观看者优化。去年，手机厂商HTC和LG都发布了无需眼镜的、拥有立体3D显示屏的手机。虽然这种手机不能播放家庭影院质量的电影，但已经足够好到能提供某种欣赏3D电影的体验。到我儿子十岁时，电视等大屏幕设备将可提供一种能激发兴趣而又无需佩戴眼镜的3D电影收看体验，而且这种体验可令许多观众同时享受。
10. Remote Controls 遥控器
When I was a child, the family TV didn't even have a remote control. We had to actually get up and walk across the room to change the channel. By the time my son enters grade school, most of us will have moved on to either using our smartphones or a combination of gestures and voice commands to change channels.
当我还是个孩子的时候，家庭电视甚至还没有遥控器。我们不得不站起身来，穿过整个房间去切换频道。到我儿子进小学时，我们大多数人将会使用智能手机或是手势与语音控制的结合来换频道。
11. Desktops 台式电脑
By the time my son is in elementary school, PC vendors will have stopped producing most desktop computers, though all-in-ones with large screens, high-end workstations for people who do industrial-strength computations, and servers (probably in blade form) will remain. As someone who loves to build desktops from parts, I hope the market for PC components remains intact so my son and I will still be able to custom build a computer together, but I fear that option may disappear too.
到我儿子上小学时，个人电脑厂商将停止生产大多数台式电脑，但拥有大显示屏、能进行工业强度计算的高端工作站、以及服务器的一体化电脑还将保留下来。由于有些人喜欢将部件组装成台式电脑的关系，我希望个人电脑部件市场仍将继续存在，这样一来我儿子和我将可自己动手组装一台电脑，但我担心那种选择也将消失。
12. Phone Numbers 电话号码
I still remember my parents' phone number, which hasn't changed in more than 30 years, but how many of us dial numbers rather than just tapping a name in our contacts menu? With the advent of VoIP chat services like Skype, Google Talk and even Facebook audio chat, you can just dial someone by username. When my son is in high school, he'll be asking the pretty girl on the bus for her user ID, not her phone number.
我仍旧记得我父母的电话号码，那个号码30多年都没有变过，但我们之中有多少人还会直接拨号码，而不是从联系人名单中点击一个人的姓名呢？随着Skype、Google Talk甚至是Facebook语音聊天等VoIP（网络语音电话业务）服务的出现，你只会点击用户名来打电话给别人。当我儿子上中学时，他将在公车上问漂亮女孩的用户ID，而不是手机号码。
13. Prime-time Television 黄金时段电视
In ancient times, people had to gather around their TVs at a set time each week to watch "Starsky and Hutch." Then VCRs arrived and you could find out whether the Duke boys outsmarted Boss Hogg any time you wanted. DVRs now let us tape shows without using tapes, but because most TV networks make their shows available for free either via Web streaming or cable on-demand, we don't even have to record shows.
在以前，人们不得不在每周的特定时间聚集在电视机前面来收看《侠盗双雄》（Starsky and Hutch）。然后录像机（VCR）来临了，能让在任何时候收看你想看的节目。现在，数字视频录像机（DVR）能让我们不必使用磁带也能播放节目，但由于大多数电视网络都会通过网络流播放形式或有线电视点播形式提供节目的缘故，我们甚至不必录制节目。
14. Fax Machines 传真机
In the age of email, instant messaging and 4G connections, there's only one lame excuse for the continued existence of the fax machine, a gadget that had its heyday in the 1970s, and that excuse has to do with signatures. Some companies and their lawyers will only accept a scribbled signature as valid on contracts and forms, so if you want to file that loan application or send in your insurance claim form with your signature on it, fax may still be your best option.
在电子邮件、即时通信和4G网络的时代，传真机的继续存在只有一个站不住脚的理由，而这个理由与签名有关。这种设备在二十世纪七十年代达到全盛期，现在能继续存在的唯一理由就是，有些公司及其律师在接收合同和表格时只会认同手写的签名才是有效的。所以，如果你希望提交带有签名的贷款申请或是发送带有签名的保险索赔表格，那么传真机可能仍旧是你最好的选择。
However, three things will finally slay the fax. First, more companies will start accepting online forms with electronic signatures as valid, so someone's illegible signature on a hard copy isn't needed. Second, for those who just can't let go of the signature requirement, touch devices will allow people to scribble their John Hancocks into digital forms. Finally, the death of landlines will also mean death for fax machines.
但是，有三件事情将最终毁灭传真机。首先，更多公司将接受有电子签名的在线表格是有效的，所以手写签名将不再需要；其次，对那些就是不能放弃手写签名的公司来说，触摸设备将允许人们在数字表格中手写签名；最后，固网电信的死亡也将意味着传真机的死亡。
15. Optical Discs 光盘
I still remember the first DVD I bought, because it was a copy of "Hard Boiled" that I ordered from a now-defunct website called Urban Fetch. It may take until my son turns 10 for the major entertainment companies to stop publishing in DVD and Blu-ray format, but make no mistake, discs aren’t long for this world.
我仍旧记得自己购买的第一张DVD光盘，因为那张光盘是一张《辣手神探》（Hard Boiled）的拷贝，是我从一个名为rban Fetch的网站订购的，这个网站现在已经不存在。可能要到我儿子10岁时，大型娱乐公司才会停止以DVD和蓝光格式发行内容。但别搞错了，光盘在这个世界上不会存在太久。
Optical discs will last another decade or so because consumers aren't eager to repurchase films they already own on disc and because there are still a number of old or rare titles you can't find on cloud services like iTunes or Amazon. Yet with the growth in downloadable and streaming video services, all physical media is on the fast track to extinction.
光盘还将继续存在10年左右，因为消费者不会愿意重新购买自己已经在光盘上拥有的电影，还因为仍有很多老的或是稀有的电影是无法在iTunes或亚马逊等云服务上找到的。随着可下载、可流播放的视频服务的增长，所有物理媒介都会迅速走向消亡。
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